Mar 4 2015

Get A Leg Up↑ – Tampa Bay Downs, Mar. 4, 2015 (Race 7)

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UPDATE: Post-Race Recap Added.

The 7th race at Tampa Bay Downs on Wednesday, March 4th is an interesting race to feature in our new “Get A Leg Up↑” series. At first glance, a Starter Allowance Race. Upon closer inspection, really more of a Claiming Race.

Only three of the eleven horses entered in this race are eligible under the Starter Allowance condition of having started for $16,000 in a past claiming race.  And one of them is on the Also Eligible (AE) list.  The remaining eight horse are entered for a Claiming Tag of $25,000.

If you’re unfamiliar with the meaning of “Claiming” or “Starter Allowance” races, here are a couple of articles that will explain them. Click on the links below to open the article in a new Tab.

If you missed our introductory articles on the “Get A Leg Up↑” series, click here to read the Introduction and Overview article.

Pace Projector and Handicapping Comments

The full Past Performances for this race are available on TimeformUS free of charge. Click on their Pace Projector to create an account or login to an existing account.  Note that #11 is missing from the projector, due to the fact he is on the Also-Eligible list, and will only run if there is a scratch in the race. If that occurs, TimeformUS will update the projector on their website.

Pace Projector (2015-03-04 TB Race 07)

 

Click here to learn more about the terminology used in the Handicapping Comments that appear below.

Get A Leg Up (2015-03-04 TB Race 07)

Post-Race Recap

Click here to read the complete race chart on Equibase.

The TimeformUS Pace Projector was quite accurate, with the early pacesetters being 2,5,9. While the first half mile was a moderate 50.3 seconds, Park Boss (#5) kept the pressure on the leader I’m a Big Hitter (#2), and the two of them ran a 3rd quarter in a quick 24.3 seconds. This enabled the eventual winner, Flashy Chelsey to draft behind this quick pace and come through with the win.

From a trip standpoint, Flashy Chelsey was positioned in what is often referred to as the “garden spot” behind two dueling leaders. This is especially advantageous when the top two really pick up the pace in the middle part of the race. Flashy Chelsey outran his 13-1 odds, winning by one length and rewarding Daniel Centeno for returning on a 2nd ride. His odds likely drifted upward from the 8-1 M/L due to him trying the turf and a 2-turn route for the first time.

I’m a Big Hitter used his speed and inside post position to gain the early lead, and despite being pressured through a very fast 3rd quarter, finished well, and continued his sharp form. He was bet down to 6-5 odds, but did pay $3.60 to place, a 4-5 return for his Place backers. Hollywood Premiere ran a credible race, saving ground this time, and was 3 lengths ahead of the fourth place horse.

Reid the News was trying the turf for the first time, and as we noted, was in no danger of being claimed. He made up some ground in the lane, and possibly earned another shot on the turf in a future race. Park Boss pressed the pace from the outside, was in contention entering the lane, and tired again as he did in his last race off a layoff. His form continues to be in question.

Frontier Force was probably the biggest disappointment in the race. He was moving up in class, and despite the positive rating for his trainer with this move, he never got involved in the race and finished 8th.

The remaining four horses had a number of concerns that were highlighted in our comments, including distance, surface, and low figures … and they finished predictably toward the back of the pack.

Lessons Learned:

The one positive sign for the winner Flashy Chelsey that we noted on the comments was his jockey, Daniel Centeno, returned to ride him again after just one prior ride. This type of commitment is worth noting with an experienced jockey (he has over 2,000 career wins), especially when he has minimal rides for the trainer, only seven in the past year. It suggests that Centeno saw something in the horse that was worth giving him a shot stretching out on the turf.

Video Race Replay

Click here to watch the video replay on Tampa Bay Downs website. Select “Replays” and then the date (Mar. 4) and Race #7.

 


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By Neal Benoit

4 comments on “Get A Leg Up↑ – Tampa Bay Downs, Mar. 4, 2015 (Race 7)

  1. Neal, Thanks. Now between the 2,4,1 & 5 I would want to know which one looks the best in the paddock and key the horse in exotics.

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