Dec 17 2013

High and Low at GP

High and Low

In a prior article we introduced the wagering strategy of High and Low Superfecta wagers, where you key a “High” horse that you think is a serious win threat over a “Low” horse that you suspect can’t win the race, but might land in the lower rungs (say 3rd or 4th) to complete a Superfecta wager.  Click here for a review of that article, and in particular for the mathematics for calculating the cost of the wager.

After a 3-day weekend at Gulfstream Park (GP), I’ve decided it’s time to put this strategy to the test in sunny Florida, because it seems like the conditions are right; large fields, double-digit horses landing in the top four spots, and predictable winners (defined as one of the top 3 betting choices).  I put the following chart together that shows eleven such examples over the weekend, with only one (#11) not exactly fitting the criteria of the winner coming from the top 3 betting choices.  I’ll explain later.

The chart below lists the races in no particular order. It shows the Odds of the first four finishers in each race, the size of the field, and the payout for a 10-cent Superfecta wager.

Gulfstream Park (Races from December 13-15, 2013)
Ex. 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Field 10-cent Super
odds odds odds odds Size Payout
#1 3-1 25-1 7-2 56-1 10 $680
#2 3-1 8-1 10-1 9-1 14 $282
#3 2-1 18-1 10-1 66-1 12 $481
#4 1-1 20-1 25-1 5-2 12 $148
#5 7-2 3-1 64-1 3-1 9 $260
#6 5-2 7-2 6-1 83-1 10 $150
#7 4-1 7-1 37-1 6-1 11 $674
#8 2-1 8-5 84-1 55-1 12 $585
#9 6-1 7-1 5-1 10-1 14 $411
#10 3-1 7-2 6-1 88-1 14 $463
#11 8-1 9-5 51-1 54-1 14 $1,791
GP Board and Gate

Post Time at Gulfstream Park

This chart represents 1/3 of the races over the three day span.  Look at all of the high priced horses in the lower rungs, and even some that finished 2nd.  With field sizes of 9 to 14, High and Low plays would range from $4.20 to $13.20 per play.  See the prior article mentioned above for an explanation of how these are calculated.

Now, let me first divulge that I did not personally collect on any of these Superfectas.  Why?  Because I didn’t make any Superfecta plays over the course of the three days.  I was not in High and Low mode at the time.  It was only upon reflection of the result charts for the weekend that I realized this was High and Low territory.  In fact, I woke up at 4:00 in the morning today, shouting “High and Low you idiot!”

It was race #10 on the chart that really made me realize the opportunity lost.  For the record, it’s the 5th race on Sunday, December 15, 2013.  Three things happened that should have led me to a high low play in this race.  Here they are:

  1. As the horses came onto the track, I noticed that the favorite (Amber Morning, 2-1) was breathing quite erratic, and didn’t look good warming up.  I really didn’t like her anyway, and this made her a throwout for me.
  2. My top selection (Love That Kelly, 3-1) looked super, but in a 14-horse field, I wasn’t satisfied with 3-1 odds.
  3. In the paddock, my eyes were drawn to a first-time-starter (Scorpion Aly, 88-1) that was on her toes and her coat was shiny and clearly dappled out.  Click here  for an explanation of “dappled out” in a prior article.

With the favorite looking vulnerable, the chances for a solid Superfecta payout were good, especially if she ran out of the top four (which she did).  But, I was so enamored by Scorpion Aly, and maybe feeling pretty cocky after hitting a 35-1 winner (story for another day) the day before, that I decided to just make a Win-Place-Show bet on her.  I had visions of cashing on a historic (for me) win bet at gigantic odds.

So, here’s what happened.  Amber Morning (the 2-1 favorite) finishes 10thLove That Kelly wins.  And Scorpion Aly finishes a fast closing 4th (missing 3rd by a diminishing neck).  Had she finished 3rd the Show bet no doubt would have been generous. Enough to make the WPS bet worthwhile. But, finishing 4th resulted in no cash for me.

However, looking back now, a High and Low wager as follows for $13.20 would have returned $463.  A nice consolation for running fourth.

10-Cent Superfecta, Part Wheel: Love That Kelly with {All} with {All} with Scorpion Aly

The last example on the list #11, is a slight deviation, in that the winner at odds of 8-1 was really the 4th betting choice in the race.  However, he was my top choice and having cashed a winning Win-Place wager on him I was pleased.  Unfortunately, I had no inkling about the 3rd and 4th place bombers at 51-1 and 54-1.  I included this example to point out that even when the favorite (the 9-5 Place horse) hits the board, you can still get a big payoff.  I had the right “High” horse, but was missing a “Low” horse to play along with him.

With the observations made this weekend, I intend to be more in-tune to High and Low opportunities at Gulfstream Park over the coming weeks.  I’ll let you know how it works out!


2 comments on “High and Low at GP

  1. I’d tweak your approach as follows. Use more than 1 horse for “high”. Also, use my “low” horse in both 3rd and 4th position. I might also spend a couple bucks using the “low” horse in 2nd position for an exacta with the high horse on top. I’d also like to avoid the All button and eliminate a few horses so I can keep the ticket cost down, especially if it’s a big field like some of the 14 horse fields they are having down there.

    • Good ideas. When circumstances are right, using more than one High or Low horse makes sense. Regarding the use of the “All” button, with so many “bombs” hitting the board, it makes it difficult to eliminate many horses with much confidence. But, again a good idea. Thanks for your comments.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *