Triple Crown Memories – Affirmed vs. Alydar (An Epic Rivalry)

Affirmed vs. Alydar (Photo courtesy of NYRA)

Every sport has it’s great rivalries. Basketball had Larry Bird and Magic Johnson. Boxing had Ali and Frazier. And, of course The Yankees and Red Sox baseball rivalry continues to this day. As far as horse racing, clearly in my generation it is Affirmed vs. Alydar.

It’s absolutely amazing to say this, but the last Triple Crown winner was Affirmed back in 1978.  And the story of Affirmed is intertwined with his chief rival Alydar.  Rarely do you hear recollections of Affirmed without Alydar being mentioned to complete the story.

Yet, their rivalry was much more than just their Triple Crown races. Consider this – through the conclusion of the 1978 Belmont Stakes, these two great race horses had met nine times. Affirmed had prevailed in six of those meetings … by a combined total of THREE lengths.

For an entire generation of horse racing fans, their epic battles defined horse racing. For me personally, their story is singularly responsible for my lifelong devotion to the sport of Thoroughbred horse racing. When Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978 I was 17 years old and had been following the sport for less than one calendar year. Seeing these two battle neck n’ neck down the lane of the Belmont Park stretch, witnessing the grit, heart, and soul of two champion horses … well, it just took my breath away. And, to this day, it still does.

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2014 Derby Lesson – You Have To Get Creative With Heavy Favorites

A 2-1 Favorite On The Board

About 24 hours before the 2014 Kentucky Derby I received an e-mail from an old horse racing buddy that said, “I need to bet an Oaks-Derby Double.  Do you think Untapable is unbeatable?  And, can you give me some horses and thoughts on the Derby?”

Regarding Untapable in the Kentucky Oaks, I replied that she had to overcome the outside post position, but I felt she had enough tactical speed to do that. She has the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field, by far, and in her last race Rosie was peeking back in mid-stretch.  I wrote in my trip notes “done with ease.”  Untapable was solid, albeit a heavy favorite at 1-1 on the tote board.

Regarding the Kentucky Derby, I replied:

1. California Chrome (#5) has just looked so darn impressive visually.  He seems like the real deal.
2. Have to use Danza (#4) after the way he finished in the Arkansas Derby.
3. Can’t argue with Wicked Strong (#20). It appears he just didn’t like Gulfstream Park.

I ended my reply with, “I know that’s kind of boring, but I’m starting to get the feeling that the logical horses might prevail this year.”

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Recent Derby Trends – Long Stretch Runs Make Better Preps

UPDATE: Article was updated on April 25, 2015 to include information from the 2014 Kentucky Derby.

In a seminar this past week I provided some trends about recent Kentucky Derby winners and other horses that have finished in the money for the Derby.  Part of this discussion was explaining the special challenge of distance for Derby contestants and related to that, the added challenge of horses facing a stretch run that is quite long at Churchill Downs.

As most people are aware, the Kentucky Derby is 1 ^1/4 mile (10 furlongs) long.  A distance that no horse in the field has ever run prior to the Derby.  That alone is challenge enough.  In addition to that, many of the horses are coming from racetracks that have a stretch run considerably shorter than at Churchill Downs.  Below is a slide I gave in the presentation that shows the stretch runs for Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park.  The length of the stretch runs are shown in feet beneath the blue arrows.
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Kentucky Derby Memories – 1991 Go Best Pal. Go!

It was 1991, but I remember everything like it was yesterday. My first visit to a mecca of horse racing, Churchill Downs … and the Kentucky Derby.  My wife Deb was 5 months pregnant with our son, Michael. But, that didn’t slow her down one bit. Up every morning at the crack of dawn, and we were off … Off to the breeding farms, off to the race track, off to creating some of the fondest horse racing memories of my life. Read More >>

Takeout Rates, Churchill Downs, and Comparisons by Racetrack

The system of betting that is standard throughout the horse racing world is based on pari-mutuel wagering. All money wagered is placed into a pool, a “Take-Out” is removed from the pool, and the remaining money is returned to the winning wagers. The diagram below shows an example with the assumption of a 25% takeout rate and a total of $400 wagered.

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Pace Lessons from Aqueduct – Uncontested Leads Are Hard To Overcome

I went down to Aqueduct on April 5,2014 with a couple of racing buddies to witness the Wood Memorial and a couple of other quality stakes races.  Among those were the 9-Furlong Gazelle Stakes for 3-year old fillies and the 7-Furlong Carter Handicap for 3-year olds and up.  Both race outcomes were a reminder of a fundamental tenet in horse racing – uncontested leads are hard to overcome – regardless of the distance.

In the Gazelle Stakes, My Miss Sophia was the 4-5 betting favorite.  Prior to this race, she had only two career races, both maiden races; one at 5.5 furlongs and the last at 8 furlongs.  So, today she’s going an extra furlong and she’s facing much more experienced horses, including three that have run and placed in multiple Graded Stakes races.  But she has something that none of her rivals have shown in their prior races … the ability to break sharply and position herself on the lead. This capability can result in what handicappers often refer to as an “uncontested lead.” Below is the video replay of the race, it won’t take more than a second to see which number is My Miss Sophia, as she bursts from the gate and goes right to the lead.

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Horse Racing Has An Image Problem – What Can I Do To Help?

As I begin my second year with Getting Out Of The Gate, I decided to answer the question most often posed to me, “Why exactly are you doing this website?”  When I began this adventure, my answer was “to give something back to a sport that has given me so much.”  But, recently I’ve come to realize that it runs much deeper than that.  Now, my response is: Because Thoroughbred Horse Racing has an image problem.  And, I believe that I can do something to help.

This leads to the question, “Why does horse racing have an image problem?”  There are many people and organizations that will offer a long diatribe of issues.  Unfortunately, as an individual, some of these problems I simply can’t fix.  However, I will list three issues included in a recent Jockey Club Consumer Research report that I believe I can do something about.

1. The complexity of the sport is seen as a major issue, even among existing fans.
2. There are insufficient efforts to reach out to new fans.
3. There is a perceived lack of integrity of the people involved in the sport.

Related to these problems, I recently asked an acquaintance why he only attends the races once a year, despite living less than thirty minutes from Saratoga racetrack.  He replied, “It’s too damn hard, and it’s filled with crooks.”
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Gary Stevens – You’re Only As Good As Your Last Ride

Gary Stevens and Mucho Macho Girl

In Part 1 of our interview with Gary we discussed his relationship with his son, T.C. Stevens, who is presently a head trainer.  Click here to read Part 1 about how proud Gary Stevens is of his son and what he is presently doing.

In part 2 of our conversation, Gary talks about the young jockey Dylan Davis and his friendship with his dad, Robbie Davis. That leads into topics on jockey safety, pre-race preparations, and how he deals with the emotions of a roller coaster business. On the last subject, Gary shares his experiences during Breeders’ Cup 2013 … from the low of being disqualified in a $2 million dollar race to the high of winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Mucho Macho Man.

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Meet Gary Stevens – A Very Proud Father

Gary and T.C. Stevens

Recently I had the opportunity to interview Hall of Fame jockey, Gary Stevens.  Having met and interviewed his son, T.C. Stevens (a horse trainer) earlier this year, I wanted to learn more about the relationship between Gary and T.C. and specifically what Gary’s thoughts are on the different path that T.C. has chosen.  What I learned was, as with many father-and-son relationships, it wasn’t a linear path they followed to arrive at their current relationship.  There were impediments along the way.  The question was, could they turn those rocks into stepping stones?

I was impressed with your son’s controlled enthusiasm.  He can be enthusiastic and excitable, but at the same time very pragmatic.  Where does that come from?

He’s cultivated it on his own.  He’s super intelligent, and he has a very high IQ.  Where that came from I don’t know!  He is very passionate … he gets that from me, sometimes to the point of hurting yourself.  And he wears his heart on his sleeve, which he also gets from me.  What he’s thinking you usually hear.  However, he’s got the ability to shut himself down when it needs to be done.  That’s something that I don’t have so much.  I’m very proud of him, and what you’re describing is pure T.C.

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Staying Connected with Getting Out Of The Gate

As I near the end of my first complete year doing this website, I confess that I’m still learning as I go about the logistics of managing this enterprise.  Finding and creating material has always been easy for me.  As I mention in my Bio, I am a teacher at heart.  I also LOVE a good story, so that comes easy to me as well.  However, the notion of social media and being “connected” has for the most part eluded me.  But, I am learning.

Thanks to my friend, Jessica Peterson, at Horse Races NOW … I am beginning to learn the importance of this whole being “connected” thing.  So, with that in mind, we created Getting Out Of The Gate Facebook and Twitter accounts. Connections to both are provided on the right hand side of every page on this website. If you “Like” our Facebook page … every time we post a new article, a link will automatically be posted on the Facebook page and you will be notified via Facebook. Click here to preview the Facebook page if you’re interested … but just don’t want to commit to that whole “Like” thing.  Who knows, maybe you won’t like it.  I hope you do.

If Twitter is your thing, and you “Follow” us on Twitter, a “Tweet” will be sent out every time a new article is posted.  Also, I intend to use Twitter for much more in the future … including comments about current events, notice of activities I’m involved in, horses I’m watching, people I’m following, stories I find interesting, places I’m visiting, and maybe … just maybe some race day thoughts live from the track.  That does not mean picks … read my lips, “I don’t do picks.”  But I do have lots of “thoughts.” Click here to preview our Twitter page.

Lastly, for those of you that don’t “like” Facebook, or prefer not to “Follow” Twitter … there is an old-school way to receive a notification when a new article is posted.  It’s called e-mail.  Again on the right hand side of every page on this website, there is a “Subscribe to Blog Via Email” option.  If you enter your e-mail address there and click “Subscribe” you will be sent a confirmation e-mail to complete the subscription.  After confirming your subscription, you will then receive an e-mail with a link provided for all new articles published on our website.  And, rest assured … we do not sell, give out, beg, barter, or steal your e-mail addresses.

I hope one of these options will allow us to stay connected, or be connected, or have a connection.  Whatever.

By Neal Benoit