The ABC’s of Surviving Belmont Stakes Day – Wagering Strategies

I chose the term “surviving” with intent.  Whether Belmont Stakes, Kentucky Derby, Travers Stakes, or Breeders’ Cup Day … all of these “event days” have one thing in common – they are marathons with a dozen races or more that start in the morning and end past suppertime.  Even for the most experienced horseplayers, event  days test your endurance in ways that an ordinary day at the track does not.

On more than one occasion, I have found myself completely “out of gas” before the main event even took place.  For this reason, I have been refining an approach that is intended to help me (and you) make it through these days intact.  First, let me say, some of the strategies I am going to suggest are ones I would not necessarily use on normal race days.  The reason for this is simple, the challenges you face on “event” days are formidable and they require adaptations that will help you deal with them.  Among the many challenges are the following:

1. There are a lot more races.
2. There are a lot more horses in those races.
3. Those horses are often coming from every corner of the country – ridden by unfamiliar jockeys and trained by trainers you’ve only heard about.
4. Distractions abound. Gigantic crowds, long betting lines, long beer lines, and even longer bathroom lines.

So, my first suggestion is borrowed from Henry David Thoreau … Simplify, simplify, simplify.  Start by doing the bulk of your handicapping prior to post time.  This will enable you to do the following:

1. Identify the races that are the most playable.
2. Identify the races that you will likely take a “Pass” on.  I know this is anathema to many horseplayers, but strongly advised here.
3. Identify the A-B-C horses in every race that you consider playable.

The last item on this list is the setup for the next phase of our survival guide.  For more experienced players, it is not to be confused with Steve Crist’s A-B-C methodology of planning for multi-race wagers (e.g. Pick-4, Pick-6, etc.).  For our purpose, based upon your handicapping, give a designation to each horse in a race based upon the following criteria.

Now let’s consider the type of wagers available, and divide them into two categories. Odds dependent (OD) and Who-Cares-About-odds (WCAO).  I chose this term because when I used to try to teach an old buddy about “value” wagers and odds, he would reply “Who cares about the odds … I just want the winner!”

For the purposes of this article, we are going to limit the discussion to Intra-race wagers and Doubles and leave more complex  Multi-race wagers (e.g. Pick-4, Pick-6) for another day.  Again, simplify.

Now,  let’s devise a strategy to manage the chaos that will inevitably unfold on race day.  Make a list of your playable races and to the right of them define your A-B-C designations by horse number.  Below is an example, keeping in mind the race and horse numbers are purely hypothetical for the purpose of illustration.  Note, within each category, horse numbers should be listed in order of preference from left to right.

From the chart, you can see that I’ve decided that races #1, #3, and #6 are unplayable.  Any number of reasons might cause me to make this choice.  Listed below are possible reasons I might consider a race to be unplayable.

• A maiden race with too many first-time-starters and no good trainer statistics or breeding angles to hang my hat on.
• Any race where multiple horses are coming off long layoffs and their current form is just too much in question.
• A turf race gets washed off and moved to a dirt surface, where too many runners have unknown dirt ability.
• A race lands in my scheduled beer break time.  Sometimes it’s best to just plan for these in advance!

Continuing on. The A-B pattern is just a visual representation of the ‘A’ and ‘B’ horses you are making in a race.  For example, AA-BB simply means you have two ‘A’ horses and two ‘B’ horses.   After getting in the habit of doing this for awhile, you will begin to spot automatic plays that you prefer to make based upon the patterns.  When I see AAA-BB, I instinctively think: 5-horse Superfecta box (10-cent) combining all of my A-B horses for $12.  Some of my best hits over the years have been on Superfecta wagers from this simple pattern.

The actual wagers you come up with will vary based upon your own personal style, habits, and bankroll.  Utilizing two of the races (#5 and #7) from the imaginary races listed above, I will give you some samples just to get you thinking about the possibilities.

Sample of some possible WCAO Wagers

A presumption in the examples above is that the field sizes are moderate to large (10+ horses).  Wagers shown as samples here might not be cost effective in short fields.  Also, to learn more about the wagers listed above, click on the following links for articles that contain detailed explanations.

• Boxing Exacta and Trifecta wagers and Basics of Part-Wheel Wagers.
• Part-Wheel Trifecta wagers using a “Key” Horse.
• Part-Wheel Superfecta wagers.
• Using “Sandwich Play” Trifecta wagers to backup Exacta Wagers.

Now, back to the original intent … to simplify.  Here is where you focus on creating your WCAO wagers in advance of your OD wagers.  Sometimes I put all of the WCAO wagers in as soon as I have all the scratches and get them done before my first playable race even begins.  Other times I just put them in race-by-race, but I get them done early without worrying about the odds board.  This gives me the peace of mind to focus on the OD (odds dependent) wagers next … leading right up to post time.

Regarding the above examples, you might have noticed that I put in some Exacta and Double wagers, despite labeling them as OD (Odds Dependent) type of wagers above.  This is an example of an adaptation I might make on “Event” days in order to simplify my OD wagers.  For example, I might just go ahead and make the AA-AA crisscross doubles early and be done with them.  On busy days it’s easy to get distracted and either forget to look or look once and loose sight of them later.  This has happened to me many times.

In the Race #5 example above, where I made an Exacta box with the three ‘B’ horses in the A-BBB pattern, I highly recommend treating this as a WCAO wager if you expect your ‘B’ horses to go off at square prices and the ‘A’ horse to be overbet.

All of the above efforts were done in the interest of simplifying your Odds Dependent (OD) wagers.  Ideally, you would save your Win-Place-Show wagers until the latest possible time. One technique I use to help me quickly identify my possible WPS wagers in the final minutes before post time is to write the odds directly below my A-B-C program numbers.  For example:

In the above example, it becomes easy to spot two horses of particular interest.  #7 is my top selection and is twice the odds of my other ‘A’ horse, #2.  Also, #3 is my 4^th choice, but is going off at 16-1 odds … a square price for a horse good enough to be labeled as a ‘B’.

In addition to Win-Place-Show wagers, you might want to hold off on some of your Exacta or Double wagers until you can see the probable payout amounts.  Depending on the odds, you might choose to employ a strategy of Weighted Wagers rather than simply boxing or playing your Doubles for equal amounts.  Click here to read a prior article that explains the concept of Weighted Wagers.

Summary:

The main goal should not only be to survive, but to THRIVE on these crazy days.  It just takes some discipline and planning.  Here is a recap of the steps I have described above.

1. Get your handicapping done early, well in advance of your first playable race.
2. Identify the races you consider playable.
3. Label your A-B-C horses in the races you consider playable.
4. Construct your WCAO wagers based upon A-B patterns.
5. Make your WCAO wagers as early as possible.  Putting in a 10-cent Superfecta Part-Wheel minutes before post is stressful (for you and the people behind you in line).
6. Mark down the live odds, adjacent to your A-B-C selections.
7. Check the probable payouts for your expected Exacta and Double wagers and make Weighted Wagers if appropriate.
8. Make your Win-Place-Show wagers (ideally minutes before post time).
9. Watch the race.
10. Cash your winning tickets.
11. Sip a cold beer.
12. Turn the page and repeat steps.

HAVE FUN!

By Neal Benoit