Apr 28
2015
Since I will be offline for the majority of the Triple Crown races this year, I thought it would be nice to put together a collection of previously published articles that might be of some use to horseplayers and fans as they make their way through the 2015 Triple Crown season. Below is a list of the articles with a brief explanation why they might be of interest to you. Click on the Title to be transferred to the full article.
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Apr 25
2015
I’ve been dealing with some health issues over the past few months. During this time period I’ve tried to keep the website going with at least one article a week. However, present circumstances require that I have some corrective surgery and take the time to recover. The good news is that my doctors expect a full recovery and a return to “normal” activities … which for me means getting back to the race track! With that said, I have been told to expect a few weeks of downtime after the surgery, which will take place the first week of May. During that time period I will not be posting any new articles.
In the meantime I will be publishing an article a few days before the Kentucky Derby that will provide some thoughts about the Triple Crown races and links to past articles that might help in your preparation for these exciting events.
Enjoy the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes!
Neal J. Benoit
P.S. My sincere thanks for all of the kind words and best wishes in the comments section … very much appreciated.
Apr 19
2015
UPDATE: Post-Race Recap Added.
The 9th race at Keeneland on Saturday is the Grade 2 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes, a turf marathon for horses 4 years and older. This edition features the return of the 2014 Elkhorn winner, Unitarian, trained by Todd Pletcher.
We decided to feature this race because the race presents a number of challenges and has the potential for solid payouts both in Intra-race and Multi-race wagering. Of the eleven horses entered, five are returning from layoffs from 140 to 224 days. Unlike last year’s edition of the Elkhorn, where there was a relatively fast pace for a 12 furlong race, TimeformUS is projecting a slower pace that might benefit horses on or near the lead.
And, if that’s not enough, the condition of the Keeneland Turf course is a question mark. The course has been wet in the days leading up to this race, and on Friday it was labeled as yielding for all the turf races. The weather Saturday is projected to be good, but we still expect there to be some “cut” in the ground, and probably be labeled as “Good.”
This field also brings together a good combination of horses in the prime racing age of four to six years old. There are horses with improving form, yet lacking experience in G2 Stakes races. There are horses with proven ability at 12 furlongs and others who have not been involved in races over 9 furlongs. And another horse (Carey Street) is a proven marathon horse, but only on the dirt surface.
So there is much to consider, and for that reason, the potential exists for large payouts. Without further adieu, we offer our analysis of the horses in the 2015 Elkhorn Stakes.
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Apr 16
2015
Keeneland is a beautiful race course, set in the bucolic hills of Lexington, Kentucky. Each time we visit there we find something new. Unfortunately, we were unable to return there in the Spring of 2015, so the search for something new was limited to the internet … and sure enough, it was found. The Keeneland Handicapping Database.
Free to anyone with a computer and link to the internet, a database of 2,665 races run at Keeneland, from 2006 through the present. With one click, the information can be downloaded to a spreadsheet … and then sorted, sliced, and diced to your heart’s desire. And if you’ve been following this website for any length of time, you know that I can’t resist a little “Panning for Gold.” Below is a list of some of the data that’s available:
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Apr 12
2015
In a prior article we introduced Claiming races. Click here for a review of that article. The type of races described in that article are open to any horse where the owner is willing to offer the horse for the claiming price of the race. But, there are other types of Claiming races where a horse can be entered only if they meet certain “conditions.” It is these type of races that we will focus on in this article. We’ll start with the simple, and work our way up to the more complex. Read More >>
Apr 5
2015
When handicapping, I will sometimes make the notation, “Needs The Lead” at the top of a horse’s Past Performances (PPs). Meaning they do their best (and sometimes only) running when they are happily cruising on an uncontested lead at the front of the pack.
Now, if the horse is running in a race on a speed favoring surface, or happens to be the “only” speed in the race, I will color code my comment in Blue (for a good thing). But, more times than not I don’t view this trait as a “good thing.” Especially if there are other “Needs The Lead” horses in the same race or if the horse in question doesn’t seem to have superior speed to establish an easy lead.
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Mar 28
2015
UPDATE: Post-Race Recap and Video Replay Added.
The 11th race at Fair Grounds on Saturday is the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, one of the stepping stones for horses bound for the Kentucky Derby. This edition features the return of the top four finishers from the Risen Star Stakes on February 21 over the same dirt course. In addition to that will be the appearance of Mr. Z, who has already had ten career races, with eight of those in Graded Stakes.
We took a look back at the last seven Louisiana Derbies, and found that five of the seven winners came from post position 6 or under. Also, we found that six of the last seven winners were either pacesetters or were stalking types that were reasonably close to the pace. This suggests that horses with an inside post position and some tactical speed might have some advantage.
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Mar 20
2015
Beholder and Gary Stevens. Photo by Alicia Hamm
Continuing on the theme of a prior article on “Visual Handicapping” we’re going to get into more details on questions raised there. Click here to review the visual handicapping article, and learn more about the differences between visual handicapping and trip handicapping.
With visual handicapping, it’s always important to look beyond the raw numbers (i.e. Beyer Speed Figures, Pace Figures, Running Lines) in the Daily Racing Form and ask the question, “How did they do it?”
We raised some of these questions before, but we’ll ask them again:
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Mar 13
2015
UPDATE: Post-Race Recap Added.
The 7th race at Gulfstream Park on Thursday, March 12th is an interesting race to feature in our new “Get A Leg Up↑” series. A Starter Allowance and Optional Claiming Race with half the field eligible under the Starter Allowance condition of having started for $16,000 in a past claiming race and the other half entered for a Claiming Tag of $25,000.
One of the more interesting angles to this race is the presence of a horse trained by Todd Pletcher, who has a predictably low Morning Line (7-5 Odds) due to the very popular trainer and jockey combination. However, based purely on TFUS speed figures, he has no clear advantage over several of the competitors in the race.
If you’re unfamiliar with the meaning of “Claiming” or “Starter Allowance” races, here are a couple of articles that will explain them. Click on the links below to open the article in a new Tab.
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Mar 9
2015
Brendan Walsh
When he started training three years ago, Brendan Walsh bought enough equipment for a dozen horses. That wasn’t enough. It went to twenty and now it’s 32 horses in his stable. He expects to have between 40 and 45 horses over the summer. The day after we interviewed Brendan, he won his 3rd consecutive start at Gulfstream Park. In 2014, he cracked the $1 million mark for purses earned. So, the life of a horse trainer is a bed of roses, huh. Well, listen to Brendan’s story before you give up your day job to try it out.
Brendan Walsh grew up on a farm in County Cork, Ireland. That gave him plenty of exposure to animals, but not horses … until he got a pony. He had to teach himself how to ride, since no one in his family “had a clue.” Brendan described his relationship with the pony, “For about two years that pony would buck and kick and run off on me. My dad said anyone else would have just quit. But, I’d keep getting back on him, and eventually I got him going pretty good.”
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