Apr 19
2015
UPDATE: Post-Race Recap Added.
The 9th race at Keeneland on Saturday is the Grade 2 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes, a turf marathon for horses 4 years and older. This edition features the return of the 2014 Elkhorn winner, Unitarian, trained by Todd Pletcher.
We decided to feature this race because the race presents a number of challenges and has the potential for solid payouts both in Intra-race and Multi-race wagering. Of the eleven horses entered, five are returning from layoffs from 140 to 224 days. Unlike last year’s edition of the Elkhorn, where there was a relatively fast pace for a 12 furlong race, TimeformUS is projecting a slower pace that might benefit horses on or near the lead.
And, if that’s not enough, the condition of the Keeneland Turf course is a question mark. The course has been wet in the days leading up to this race, and on Friday it was labeled as yielding for all the turf races. The weather Saturday is projected to be good, but we still expect there to be some “cut” in the ground, and probably be labeled as “Good.”
This field also brings together a good combination of horses in the prime racing age of four to six years old. There are horses with improving form, yet lacking experience in G2 Stakes races. There are horses with proven ability at 12 furlongs and others who have not been involved in races over 9 furlongs. And another horse (Carey Street) is a proven marathon horse, but only on the dirt surface.
So there is much to consider, and for that reason, the potential exists for large payouts. Without further adieu, we offer our analysis of the horses in the 2015 Elkhorn Stakes.
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Mar 28
2015
UPDATE: Post-Race Recap and Video Replay Added.
The 11th race at Fair Grounds on Saturday is the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, one of the stepping stones for horses bound for the Kentucky Derby. This edition features the return of the top four finishers from the Risen Star Stakes on February 21 over the same dirt course. In addition to that will be the appearance of Mr. Z, who has already had ten career races, with eight of those in Graded Stakes.
We took a look back at the last seven Louisiana Derbies, and found that five of the seven winners came from post position 6 or under. Also, we found that six of the last seven winners were either pacesetters or were stalking types that were reasonably close to the pace. This suggests that horses with an inside post position and some tactical speed might have some advantage.
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Mar 13
2015
UPDATE: Post-Race Recap Added.
The 7th race at Gulfstream Park on Thursday, March 12th is an interesting race to feature in our new “Get A Leg Up↑” series. A Starter Allowance and Optional Claiming Race with half the field eligible under the Starter Allowance condition of having started for $16,000 in a past claiming race and the other half entered for a Claiming Tag of $25,000.
One of the more interesting angles to this race is the presence of a horse trained by Todd Pletcher, who has a predictably low Morning Line (7-5 Odds) due to the very popular trainer and jockey combination. However, based purely on TFUS speed figures, he has no clear advantage over several of the competitors in the race.
If you’re unfamiliar with the meaning of “Claiming” or “Starter Allowance” races, here are a couple of articles that will explain them. Click on the links below to open the article in a new Tab.
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Mar 4
2015
UPDATE: Post-Race Recap Added.
The 7th race at Tampa Bay Downs on Wednesday, March 4th is an interesting race to feature in our new “Get A Leg Up↑” series. At first glance, a Starter Allowance Race. Upon closer inspection, really more of a Claiming Race.
Only three of the eleven horses entered in this race are eligible under the Starter Allowance condition of having started for $16,000 in a past claiming race. And one of them is on the Also Eligible (AE) list. The remaining eight horse are entered for a Claiming Tag of $25,000.
If you’re unfamiliar with the meaning of “Claiming” or “Starter Allowance” races, here are a couple of articles that will explain them. Click on the links below to open the article in a new Tab.
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Feb 22
2015
UPDATE: Post-Race Recap Added.
The 11th race at Gulfstream Park on Friday, February 20th is an interesting race to feature in our new “Get A Leg Up↑” series. A restricted Claiming Race that is made up predominantly of horses dropping into the claiming ranks after multiple tries against Allowance company.
If you’re unfamiliar with the meaning of “Claiming” or “Allowance” races, here are a couple of articles that will explain them. Click on the links below to open the article in a new Tab.
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Feb 12
2015
In a prior article we introduced a new feature on our website, called “Get A Leg Up↑” – an ongoing series intended to give horseplayers “a leg up” on handicapping races. Click here to read the introduction.
In this article we explain in greater detail the terminology you will be seeing in “Get A Leg Up↑” articles yet to come. A link back to this article will be included in all future “Get A Leg Up↑” articles for easy reference in case you have any questions about the terminology used.
Over time, new terms will likely be added to the list. When that happens, we will update this page so that the list is complete.
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Feb 6
2015
Today we introduce a new feature on the website called “Get A Leg Up↑“. This is a term used in horse racing when someone gives a jockey a boost up onto the back of a horse.
In our series we hope to give horseplayers a boost up on a race. We will select individual races that provide opportunities to learn and maybe with a little luck, provide some financial rewards in the process. But, our main focus is education. We will not be providing any “picks,” and we will try to keep the analysis focused on … well, as Sergeant Joe Friday used to say on Dragnet, “Just the facts, ma’am.”
There will be multiple components to this new feature. The first three will be published prior to the race. The last two will be published after the race.
- Show a Pace Projector for the race, provided by TimeformUS.
- Provide a Summary Sheet that includes some information about every horse in the race, including horse number, post position, age, jockey, trainer, morning line, and a “Form Indicator” (explained below).
- Provide detailed handicapping comments for every horse in the race (explained below).
- Provide a post-race recap that summarizes the results of the race and relates them back to the handicapping comments. Also, a link to the official Equibase race chart will be provided.
- If a public video of the race replay is available (i.e. on YouTube), the video will be added to the article below the post-race recap.
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