Jul 31
2018
In a prior article we discussed the importance of using workouts to evaluate a horse’s current racing “form.” Workouts were described in detail and Daily Racing Form examples were provided, including the option to “merge” workouts into the running lines with DRF Formulator. Click here to view “Workouts – A Measure of Racing Form.”
In this article we’re going to feature workouts, as they are presented in TimeformUS. And specifically, how they help you spot patterns for a horse that is coming back from a layoff. The horse is Come Dancing, and she made her return to racing on July 25, 2018 in the 6th race at Saratoga. Below are her PPs.
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Jul 25
2018
Post positions in and of themselves are not important. Post positions relative to where the starting gate is located on the track, the running style (e.g. early speed vs. closer) for each horse, and the size of the field are quite important.
For example, an inside post position when the gate is located only a few hops from the first turn is helpful to almost any horse, and greatly advantageous to a horse with fast-breaking early speed. On the other hand, an outside post position in the same situation is a serious disadvantage. Even if the horse has enough speed to run up to the front before the first turn, he must use some energy to get there, which could compromise his chances later.
If he cannot get to the front by the first turn, then he risks losing precious ground to the field going wide around the turn. And if the horse is not in the capable hands of a quality jockey, he might end up going wide around successive turns as well. He could end up running substantially more distance than the other horses located to his inside.
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Jul 19
2018
In no particular order, here are some handicapping tips to remember as we head into the 2018 Saratoga racing meet:
- Speed is dangerous on the turf, especially on the Inner Turf course. The tight turns and sun-baked surface seem to favor speed horses. Also, the combination of speed and inside post position is deadly.
- “Horses for Courses” rings true at Saratoga. In an article a few years ago we provided examples of three such horses in just the first four days of racing. Click here to read the details, including what to look for when you’re handicapping.
- Trainer George Weaver is one of the few trainers with a positive ROI at Saratoga nearly every year. Click here to read an article about Timeform Trainer ratings. George was featured in this article, in particular his record with 2-year old maidens.
- Use the tote board to help when handicapping 2-year old maiden races and pay close attention when a horse is being well bet from a trainer who is not one of the leading trainers. Be wary of multi-race wagers (e.g. Pick-4,5,6) when a 2-year old race is toward the end of the sequence. If a 2-year old race is the first or second leg, use the tote board and probable doubles payouts to help.
- Outside post positions at 1 1/8 mile (9 furlongs) on the dirt are really bad. This is due to the location of the starting gate at the finish line, very close to the first turn. In 2017, horses starting in post position 8 or higher were 0 for 19 in dirt route races at Saratoga.
- Jockey Jose Lezcano has the highest ROI of any major jockey over the Saratoga turf courses in the past two years. In 2016 his ROI was $2.36 and in 2017 it was $2.91.
- “Never burn your winners.” Coined by Jim Mazur, if you like a “single” horse and your bankroll is limited, make a WIN bet before spending a lot of money on “singling” your horse in multi-race wagers.
- Know your trainers. Whether using Jim Mazur products from Progressive Handicapping, DRF Formulator statistics, or some other source, get to know the strengths and weaknesses of trainers and their tendencies at Saratoga. Click here for a list of “Know Your Trainer” articles.
- Always listen to NYRA paddock analyst, Maggie Wolfendale, but especially on 2-year old maiden races and Stakes races – two areas where she seems to excel with her physical analysis of the horses in the paddock. Click here to learn more about Maggie.
- Get the NYRA NOW App on your phone or tablet. Live coverage is very good and insures you’ll be able to hear Maggie’s comments. Click here for our detailed review of the NYRA NOW App.
I hope these tips help. Good luck to everyone during the 2018 Saratoga racing meet!
By Neal Benoit
The Article Sponsored By ADIRONDACK BEVERAGES (A Favorite Cooler Drink Of Racing Fans at Saratoga)
Jun 8
2018
In Part 1 of this article we showed a chart of the “disappointed dozen” horses who have failed to win the Belmont Stakes after winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes since 1978. Included in that article was a more detailed account of the first six of these Triple Crown candidates. In Part 2 we describe the attempts of the remaining six, and offer a comparison of all twelve with this year’s candidate, Justify. We also contrast the Belmont Stakes spoilers from year’s past with the field from the 2018 Belmont Stakes.
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Jun 7
2018
Since 1978, when Affirmed won the Triple Crown, there have been 14 horses in a position to win the Triple Crown after they won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. One managed to win, American Pharoah, in 2015. The other thirteen did not.
From this point forward, we are going to give a pass to one of these 13 horses, I’ll Have Another, who was scratched from the 2012 Belmont Stakes. How did the remaining twelve fair in the Belmont Stakes. Their record: ZERO wins, 4 seconds, 4 thirds … and 4 off the board. Given the fact all twelve were post-time favorites and their average win odds was 4-5, that’s not so good. It’s a pretty safe bet that Justify will be somewhere around that 4-5 mark when they load the gate on June 9. Will he suffer the same fate of these dozen horses … highly regarded, heavily bet, and considered by many in the crowd to be destined for greatness?
In this article we’ll take a closer look at the disappointed dozen and see if we can find any common threads in their dashed dreams. Later we’ll compare these past Triple Crown candidates with our present day candidate Justify. Then you can decide for yourself whether or not he’s destined for greatness.
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Jun 5
2018
I chose the term “surviving” with intent. Whether Belmont Stakes, Kentucky Derby, Travers Stakes, or Breeders’ Cup Day … all of these “event days” have one thing in common – they are marathons with a dozen races or more that start in the morning and end past suppertime. Even for the most experienced horseplayers, event days test your endurance in ways that an ordinary day at the track does not.
On more than one occasion, I have found myself completely “out of gas” before the main event even took place. For this reason, I have been refining an approach that is intended to help me (and you) make it through these days intact. First, let me say, some of the strategies I am going to suggest are ones I would not necessarily use on normal race days. The reason for this is simple, the challenges you face on “event” days are formidable and they require adaptations that will help you deal with them. Among the many challenges are the following: Read More >>
May 3
2018
In the last article, Kentucky Derby Trends 2018, a reader commented:
“Great article Neal! Wonder how this translates to the Oaks race?”
That’s a good question I thought. In this article I will try to answer that question. Although the fillies run only 9 furlongs in the Oaks, compared to the colts going 10 furlongs in the Derby, the question of the stretch run in Prep races remains the same since horses are coming from racetracks that have a stretch run much shorter than Churchill Downs. The results suggest stretch length might be a bigger factor in the Oaks than in the Derby. Keep reading …
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Apr 30
2018
This article includes some trends about recent Kentucky Derby winners and other horses that have finished in the money for the Derby. Part of this discussion has to include the special challenge of distance for Derby contestants and related to that, the added challenge of horses facing a stretch run that is quite long at Churchill Downs.
As most people are aware, the Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 mile (10 furlongs) long. A distance that no horse in the field has ever run prior to the Derby. That alone is challenge enough. In addition to that, many of the horses are coming from racetracks that have a stretch run considerably shorter than at Churchill Downs. The diagrams below shows the stretch runs for Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park. The length of the stretch runs are shown in feet beneath the blue arrows.
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Feb 25
2018
Ok, so that didn’t go exactly as planned. If I were a racehorse, I think I’d have been declared a non-starter! My intention a few months ago was to make a return off a long layoff. What I didn’t know at the time was my biggest obstacle to recovery was lurking around the next corner. In later September I went into a tailspin that nearly resulted in a crash landing. It wasn’t until December that I was able to pull out of my dive and right the plane.
So once again I push myself up from the ground, spit out the dirt, and try again. However, this time I’ve decided to hold off on horse racing and focus on my mental and physical recovery. On the physical side, I’ve made tremendous strides in the past two months and for the first time in a very long time I’m able to walk, exercise, and rebuild my strength. It’s a slow process since so many muscles and joints were inactive for a very long time, but progress is being made.
On the mental side, let’s just say that I’ve had to draw on every bit of courage I could muster to survive this ordeal. But with the undying support of family, friends, and some special caregivers, I’m finally hopeful that I will survive this ordeal.
And, on the subject of courage, I have created a new website (www.daringways.com) called Daring Ways (Living with Courage). The content of this website will be based on a lifetime of experience with an emphasis on personal anecdotes and messages that I hope will inspire readers to adopt a daring lifestyle of their own. It is here that I will devote my attention in the upcoming months while continuing my recovery. If all goes well, then I hope to resume authoring material on this website later this year.
In the meantime, I invite you to visit the new website and subscribe to my blog via e-mail. There are a couple of essays already posted for your reading pleasure.
Sincerely,
Neal Benoit
Aug 29
2017
In a recent article, I said there is no comparison between experiencing horseracing live at the track and watching it on television. With that said, there are times that we simply can’t make it to the racetrack. For these times, you should be aware of an App called NYRA NOW which is available on multiple platforms in HD format. The two platforms I will discuss in this article are the iPad and Roku. The screenshots shown below will be from the iPad at the current Saratoga meet.
The NYRA NOW App shows only NY racing (Belmont, Saratoga, Aqueduct) and you must have a NY BETS account to access the app. Click here for more information from NYRA about the App, including platforms supported.
The following are the main features offered by the NYRA NOW App:
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