Jun 2
2015
You know the story. Since the last Triple Crown winner in 1978, Affirmed, there have been 13 horses prior to American Pharoah, in a position to win the Triple Crown after they won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. From this point forward, we are going to give a pass to one of these 13 horses, I’ll Have Another, who was scratched from the 2012 Belmont Stakes. How did the remaining twelve fair in the Belmont Stakes. Their record: ZERO wins, 4 seconds, 4 thirds … and 4 off the board. Given the fact all twelve were post-time favorites and their average win odds was 4-5, that’s not so good. It’s a pretty safe bet that American Pharoah will be somewhere around that 4-5 mark when they load the gate on June 6. Will he suffer the same fate of these dozen horses … highly regarded, heavily bet, and considered by many in the crowd to be destined for greatness?
In this article we’ll take a closer look at the disappointed dozen and see if we can find any common threads in their dashed dreams. Later (in Part 2) we’ll compare these past Triple Crown candidates with our present day candidate American Pharoah. Then you can decide for yourself whether or not he’s destined for greatness.
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May 28
2015
Belmont Park is The Green Monster of Racetracks, with the largest oval of any thoroughbred racetrack in North America, 11/2 miles in circumference. That’s 12 furlongs, or put in relative terms, 3 furlongs longer than Saratoga and Aqueduct (the other two racetracks on the NYRA circuit). It’s 4 furlongs longer than Santa Anita, Churchill Downs, Monmouth Park, and other 1-mile tracks. Again, in relative terms, that 50% longer than those racetracks. Also, unlike many other racetracks, there are virtually no restrictions on the possible distances of races that can be run at Belmont.
Belmont is a visually stunning racetrack to witness in person. From the stands it seems like the backstretch is miles away. And, due to the structural design, there are no televisions mounted near the grandstand seats. For that reason, binoculars are as essential to the racing patron as a copy of the racing program and a cold draft beer. Fancy hats are optional.
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May 22
2015
I recently sat down with Ian Wilkes, the trainer of 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Fort Larned. Ian told me that “Fort Larned took me to places I’d dreamed of going.” But to get to those places, Ian Wilkes had to learn from some mistakes first. And during the course of our conversation, I discovered that Ian is very willing to share his mistakes and the lessons he learned along the way. He explained, “You’re never too proud to say that you screwed up. Successful people always make mistakes in life and learn from them. Just don’t keep making the same ones over again.”
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Apr 28
2015
Since I will be offline for the majority of the Triple Crown races this year, I thought it would be nice to put together a collection of previously published articles that might be of some use to horseplayers and fans as they make their way through the 2015 Triple Crown season. Below is a list of the articles with a brief explanation why they might be of interest to you. Click on the Title to be transferred to the full article.
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Apr 25
2015
I’ve been dealing with some health issues over the past few months. During this time period I’ve tried to keep the website going with at least one article a week. However, present circumstances require that I have some corrective surgery and take the time to recover. The good news is that my doctors expect a full recovery and a return to “normal” activities … which for me means getting back to the race track! With that said, I have been told to expect a few weeks of downtime after the surgery, which will take place the first week of May. During that time period I will not be posting any new articles.
In the meantime I will be publishing an article a few days before the Kentucky Derby that will provide some thoughts about the Triple Crown races and links to past articles that might help in your preparation for these exciting events.
Enjoy the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes!
Neal J. Benoit
P.S. My sincere thanks for all of the kind words and best wishes in the comments section … very much appreciated.
Apr 19
2015
UPDATE: Post-Race Recap Added.
The 9th race at Keeneland on Saturday is the Grade 2 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes, a turf marathon for horses 4 years and older. This edition features the return of the 2014 Elkhorn winner, Unitarian, trained by Todd Pletcher.
We decided to feature this race because the race presents a number of challenges and has the potential for solid payouts both in Intra-race and Multi-race wagering. Of the eleven horses entered, five are returning from layoffs from 140 to 224 days. Unlike last year’s edition of the Elkhorn, where there was a relatively fast pace for a 12 furlong race, TimeformUS is projecting a slower pace that might benefit horses on or near the lead.
And, if that’s not enough, the condition of the Keeneland Turf course is a question mark. The course has been wet in the days leading up to this race, and on Friday it was labeled as yielding for all the turf races. The weather Saturday is projected to be good, but we still expect there to be some “cut” in the ground, and probably be labeled as “Good.”
This field also brings together a good combination of horses in the prime racing age of four to six years old. There are horses with improving form, yet lacking experience in G2 Stakes races. There are horses with proven ability at 12 furlongs and others who have not been involved in races over 9 furlongs. And another horse (Carey Street) is a proven marathon horse, but only on the dirt surface.
So there is much to consider, and for that reason, the potential exists for large payouts. Without further adieu, we offer our analysis of the horses in the 2015 Elkhorn Stakes.
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Apr 16
2015
Keeneland is a beautiful race course, set in the bucolic hills of Lexington, Kentucky. Each time we visit there we find something new. Unfortunately, we were unable to return there in the Spring of 2015, so the search for something new was limited to the internet … and sure enough, it was found. The Keeneland Handicapping Database.
Free to anyone with a computer and link to the internet, a database of 2,665 races run at Keeneland, from 2006 through the present. With one click, the information can be downloaded to a spreadsheet … and then sorted, sliced, and diced to your heart’s desire. And if you’ve been following this website for any length of time, you know that I can’t resist a little “Panning for Gold.” Below is a list of some of the data that’s available:
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Apr 12
2015
In a prior article we introduced Claiming races. Click here for a review of that article. The type of races described in that article are open to any horse where the owner is willing to offer the horse for the claiming price of the race. But, there are other types of Claiming races where a horse can be entered only if they meet certain “conditions.” It is these type of races that we will focus on in this article. We’ll start with the simple, and work our way up to the more complex. Read More >>
Apr 5
2015
When handicapping, I will sometimes make the notation, “Needs The Lead” at the top of a horse’s Past Performances (PPs). Meaning they do their best (and sometimes only) running when they are happily cruising on an uncontested lead at the front of the pack.
Now, if the horse is running in a race on a speed favoring surface, or happens to be the “only” speed in the race, I will color code my comment in Blue (for a good thing). But, more times than not I don’t view this trait as a “good thing.” Especially if there are other “Needs The Lead” horses in the same race or if the horse in question doesn’t seem to have superior speed to establish an easy lead.
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Mar 28
2015
UPDATE: Post-Race Recap and Video Replay Added.
The 11th race at Fair Grounds on Saturday is the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, one of the stepping stones for horses bound for the Kentucky Derby. This edition features the return of the top four finishers from the Risen Star Stakes on February 21 over the same dirt course. In addition to that will be the appearance of Mr. Z, who has already had ten career races, with eight of those in Graded Stakes.
We took a look back at the last seven Louisiana Derbies, and found that five of the seven winners came from post position 6 or under. Also, we found that six of the last seven winners were either pacesetters or were stalking types that were reasonably close to the pace. This suggests that horses with an inside post position and some tactical speed might have some advantage.
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