About four months ago, one of my handicapper friends told me, “You’ve got to check out this new software program, TimeformUS.” For 3 1/2 months I ignored his advice. He kept pestering me. He sent me messages, “They’ve got track bias information. They have a cool Pace Projector. They have Speed Figures that incorporate Pace into the calculation.” I continued to ignore him. Not enough time. Too much trouble to learn something new when I’m in the heat of battle. Yada Yada Yada. Then one day I get a text message that reads, “And it works on your iPad.” Whuuuppp. Back up the tape. Did he say that it will work on my iPad?
Those who know me, know that I am addicted to my iPad when it comes to horse racing. And, one of my biggest complaints has been the lack of a good handicapping program on the iPad. My iPad has been with me on every visit to racetracks from New York to Kentucky to Florida to Washington. So, a couple of weeks ago I decided it’s time to get acquainted with this TimeformUS. At first I dabbled with a race or two, mostly the two races that TFUS offers free of charge on a daily basis.
But, on Sunday, July 27 I decided to cut loose. I utilized TimeformUS exclusively to handicap races from four different racetracks, including Saratoga, Monmouth, Del Mar, and Emerald Downs. And I am here to tell you … I am impressed.
In a prior article introducing the topic of Form, we mentioned two subtopics called “Throwout Races” and “Hidden Form.” The focus of this post will be to delve into both of these topics in much greater detail, and provide a high profile race as an example. That race happens to be the 2013 Belmont Stakes, won by Palace Malice.
If you recall in our introduction on Form, we provided a quote from Tom Ainsle, that says for every bet lost due to errors in judgment on factors such as class, age, or distance … you will lose two due to misreading the condition (form) factor. I can say that on the 2013 Belmont Stakes this was absolutely true for me. Of course hindsight is 20/20, but looking back at what I missed, I can clearly see that I did a poor job assessing the hidden form in Palace Malice’s past performances. Specifically, by not putting a line through 2 out of his last 3 races and underestimating his good form in workouts and on-track performances at five different racetracks. Read More >>
On a recent visit to Belmont Park, I witnessed an exhilarating finish between Walk Close and Wave The Flag. Both horses rushed to the finish line, overtaking the 3-5 favorite Sweet Acclaim in the final yards. A nose separated the tandem at the wire. Together, they combined for a $155 exacta. The trainers of the top two finishers: Christophe Clement and Graham Motion. Below is a video replay of the exciting race. Walk Close is #3 and Wave The Flag is #7.
This race was a $100,000 turf stakes race. And, moments after the finish, I had a flashback to an eerily similar race at Keeneland in April where another two horses trained by Motion and Clement raced to the line, besting a 3-5 favorite in the Grade-3 $150,000 Bewitch Stakes. On that day the two trainer’s charges (Inimitable Romanee and Aigue Marine) combined for a $263 exacta. They went off at odds of 14-1 and 20-1. For those keeping score in these two races, it’s Motion-1 and Clement-1 … for a push.
For horseplayers that track trainer statistics, the outcome of these two races were predictable and profitable. We choose these two trainers for our next “Know Your Trainers” segment to explain why.
A frequent question asked by new fans trying to learn more about horse racing is, “Where do I begin?” My immediate response is generally, “Get to know your trainers.” While learning about topics like distance, class, and pace are important … in my opinion, none are as important as learning about the tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses of trainers. With that thought in mind, we are starting a new series of articles called “Know Your Trainers.”
In this series we will dig into the statistics of some head trainers and try to make sense of the numbers we find. We thought it might be fun to present the numbers in a “competitive” manner by pairing trainers. With that said, we are not trying to judge the trainers or claim that one is better than another. Our intention is to pair trainers who have statistics in comparable categories and present some plausible reasons why they might differ.
So let’s start with two of the big names in the business, Todd Pletcher and Bill Mott. Our focus will be on two main areas; Graded Stakes and First Time Starters (FTS). The statistics presented were gathered with Daily Racing Form’s online software Formulator. We limited the data to the past two years, but you can go back five years if you want a larger sample of data.
In a prior article I explained how specific tendencies of Trainers can be sought out using the Daily Racing Form online software (known as DRF Formulator). When researching trainer statistics, I tend to separate them into “positive” trends (horse to bet on) and “negative” trends (horse to bet against). I thought it would be interesting to go back and check out a few examples of positive trends that I used to my advantage in the past. Read More >>
Beyer Speed Figures appear in the Daily Racing Form for races run in North America. These Figures represent a relative measure of how fast a horse finished in a prior race. The higher the number the faster the horse ran. The calculation of these figures is based on a formula created by Andrew Beyer and incorporated into the DRF starting in 1992. These Figures continue to be calculated by a group of individuals working on behalf of Andy Beyer. Read More >>
Belmont Park is The Green Monster of Racetracks, with the largest oval of any thoroughbred racetrack in North America, 11/2 miles in circumference. That’s 12 furlongs, or put in relative terms, 3 furlongs longer than Saratoga and Aqueduct (the other two racetracks on the NYRA circuit). It’s 4 furlongs longer than Santa Anita, Churchill Downs, Monmouth Park, and other 1-mile tracks. Again, in relative terms, that 50% longer than those racetracks. Also, unlike many other racetracks, there are virtually no restrictions in the possible distances that races can be run at Belmont.
Belmont is a visually stunning racetrack to witness in person. From the stands it seems like the backstretch is miles away. And, due to the structural design, there are no televisions mounted near the grandstand seats. For that reason, binoculars are as essential to the racing patron as a copy of the racing program and a cold draft beer. Fancy hats are optional.
UPDATE: Article was updated on April 25, 2015 to include information from the 2014 Preakness.
As we get nearer to the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown, it’s time to separate fact from opinion when it comes to the running style most suited to winning The Preakness Stakes at Pimlico racetrack. So, we decided to go back eleven years and chart the running style for the first three finishers and how they ran in The Preakness Stakes that year. Before we show the chart, let’s first define the running styles.
Early Speed – A horse that breaks quickly from the gate and establishes themselves either on the lead, or very close to it.
Stalker – A horse that sits behind the early speed horses, and is positioned no further back than mid-pack.
Closer – A horse that is mid-pack or further back early in the race, and did it’s best running in the later stages of the race.
UPDATE: Article was updated on April 25, 2015 to include information from the 2014 Kentucky Derby.
In a seminar this past week I provided some trends about recent Kentucky Derby winners and other horses that have finished in the money for the Derby. Part of this discussion was explaining the special challenge of distance for Derby contestants and related to that, the added challenge of horses facing a stretch run that is quite long at Churchill Downs.
As most people are aware, the Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 mile (10 furlongs) long. A distance that no horse in the field has ever run prior to the Derby. That alone is challenge enough. In addition to that, many of the horses are coming from racetracks that have a stretch run considerably shorter than at Churchill Downs. Below is a slide I gave in the presentation that shows the stretch runs for Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park. The length of the stretch runs are shown in feet beneath the blue arrows. Read More >>
I went down to Aqueduct on April 5,2014 with a couple of racing buddies to witness the Wood Memorial and a couple of other quality stakes races. Among those were the 9-Furlong Gazelle Stakes for 3-year old fillies and the 7-Furlong Carter Handicap for 3-year olds and up. Both race outcomes were a reminder of a fundamental tenet in horse racing – uncontested leads are hard to overcome – regardless of the distance.
In the Gazelle Stakes, My Miss Sophia was the 4-5 betting favorite. Prior to this race, she had only two career races, both maiden races; one at 5.5 furlongs and the last at 8 furlongs. So, today she’s going an extra furlong and she’s facing much more experienced horses, including three that have run and placed in multiple Graded Stakes races. But she has something that none of her rivals have shown in their prior races … the ability to break sharply and position herself on the lead. This capability can result in what handicappers often refer to as an “uncontested lead.” Below is the video replay of the race, it won’t take more than a second to see which number is My Miss Sophia, as she bursts from the gate and goes right to the lead.
