Jul 29
2013
In a prior article we introduced the concept of Pace Figures and demonstrated an example with the Preakness winner Oxbow on how important they are in evaluating a race. Click here for a review of that article. On Saturday, July 27 I sent a text to my handicapper friend Vince saying “I think Kauai Katie is beatable today.” My thinking was based on the Pace Figures for the race, and my presumption that she is a “need to lead” type of horse. By that I mean a horse that needs to set an uncontested early pace to do their best running. Often, this type of horse gets discouraged if they are pressured early in the race.
First, in case you aren’t familiar with the race outcome, let me set the stage. Kauai Katie opened up at 1-9 odds, and remained that way for a long time. At post time she went off at 2-5 odds. A heavy favorite. Read More >>
Jul 26
2013
In a prior article we explained that Sprints are short races (less than 1 mile) and Routes are long races (1 mile or more). We also opined that some horses are better suited to run in Sprints while others prefer a Route of ground. Frequently you will come upon a horse that has been running in Sprint races and is now stretching out for the first time in a Route race. You look at the Past Performances (PPs) and find in her Sprint races she has been steadily gaining ground at the end, but often falling short. You surmise (enter the Paradox) that “if she only had a little more ground” she would eventually catch the leaders and win the race. So when she is finally entered in a Route race, you think “Aha, perfect … this horse is going to win for sure.” Unfortunately, many times you will be wrong. Hence, completion of the paradox. Two examples follow. Read More >>
Jul 23
2013
Hang around the race track enough and you’ll hear someone refer to a horse as one of those “Horses for Courses.” In fact I was sitting in the carousel (at Saratoga) on Monday when I heard a handicapper behind me say those exact words regarding a horse in the feature race. This is not unique to Saratoga, but it sure seems be a regular occurrence here. Some speculate that it’s the atmosphere, weather, or mineral water that does the trick. I’m not sure how many horses get to drink the mineral water, but maybe there’s something to that.
In four days of racing, I can identify three winners that can be classified as “Horses for Courses.” And, something they all had in common … they were double-digit odds. Here’s a recap of each horse, including their PPs for review. Read More >>
Jul 21
2013
In a prior post we defined what we consider to be the Basic elements of handicapping: Distance, Form, Class, and Pace. Since that post we’ve provided an explanation of what each means, and how they are presented in the Daily Racing Form. In the first race of the first day of racing at Saratoga 2013, the winning horse Hardest Core provided a clear example of how a winning selection can be made using these Basic elements. Below is the Past Performances (PPs) for Hardest Core, complete with my markings. You can click on the PPs image for a larger view if you’re having trouble reading it. Read More >>
Jul 19
2013
Saratoga is not only the “summer place to be” for racing fans, it’s also the place to be for racing’s best trainers. According to an article on DRF.COM, 21 of the top 25 trainers in purse money have stalls at Saratoga this summer. In addition to that, throughout the meet there is a steady influx of trainers less familiar, but equally interested in winning a race at the premier racing meet of the summer.
For the horseplayer this presents a good deal of uncertainty when it comes to handicapping races involving so many trainers in so many different situations. For that reason I rely on DRF Trainer Statistics more during this meet than probably any other time of the year. In particular I use the DRF Formulator software to breakdown statistics into much finer categories than the summary statistics at the bottom of each horse’s Past Performances (PPs). And opening day at the 2013 Saratoga meet presented a good example of why this can be so important.
Read More >>
Jul 17
2013
Starter races are a unique kind of race, where eligibility is limited to horses that have started at or under a specific Claiming price somewhere in their career (or since a specific date). To read more about Claiming Races, click here for a previous article. Starter races can be written as either Handicap or Allowance races. In handicap races the weights carried by each horse are dictated by the racing secretary based on his estimate of the horse’s ability. In Allowance races weights are assigned based upon Age and/or number of recent victories.
The key point in Starter races is that a horse qualifies for the race by running in a Claiming race previously, but is not entered for a Claiming tag in the Starter race. So the owner bears no risk of losing the horse to a claim from another trainer in the Starter race. This fact alone makes for some interesting maneuvers by Trainers who risk placing horses in Claiming races with the intention of running them in Starter races at some future point (if they don’t get claimed of course).
Read More >>
Jul 10
2013
In a prior post we briefly introduced trip notes in conjunction with a review of full trip descriptions in result charts. Click here to see that post. In this post we’re going to focus on the terminology used in the abbreviated trip notes shown in the Past Performances (PPs) of each horse. These trip notes are part of what is referred to as the comment line in the PPs.
The comment line is a subset of the full description found in the result chart for a specific horse. Since it is confined to one line and relatively few characters, it can be rather cryptic to read. DRF describes the contents of the comment line as follows:
A capsule description of the horse’s performance written by the chart caller. Emphasis is placed on trouble encountered during the race and/or how it finished. If the horse won the race, the manner in which it won is indicated – driving, ridden out, handily or easily (in order of effort).
Here we will provide some examples and further description of some comment terminology used in the comments. Read More >>
Jun 22
2013
In two prior articles, we introduced Claiming races and Allowance races. Optional Claiming races are where the two meet. Why mix them? The simple answer is to fill races. Racing secretaries are always looking for ways of getting more horses into races. Allowance races can be especially tough to fill, especially when you get into the N2X and N3X conditions. Optional Claiming races are like an Allowance race with a special invitation provided for Claiming animals. Read More >>
Jun 20
2013
Result charts are a complete account of what happened in a race. As opposed to the Past Performances (PPs) for an individual horse, which reflect a subset of the result chart information; and is focused only on information specific to that horse. Before the Internet, result charts were accessible only by clipping them out of the Daily Racing Form and saving them in your own well guarded file. A collection of well organized result charts was considered gold by many handicappers. However, today they are available with the click of a mouse. Read More >>
Jun 16
2013
If you spend much time at the race track, it’s only a matter of time before you hear a horseplayer say, “Pace Makes the Race.” It’s one of those timeless maxims that has forever been a part of racing and will forever be a part of racing. Entering a race, trainers and jockeys are well aware of the running style for their horse and generally for the other horses involved in the race. For similar reasons, it’s a good idea as a horseplayer to have the same awareness when handicapping a race. Read More >>
